Stock Market News – Weed Stocks Crash (Canopy Growth) – Bitcoin Safe Haven
I said Canopy growth has a broken business model and was wrong for a year and a half. On bitcoin, nothing broken there, but just not my style.
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Original of the video here
with a fellow investors welcome to thestock market news with a long termfundamental twist my name is van CarleneI have been successfully investing foralmost 20 years nowyes I’m that old and I have been afinance and accounting professor at theUniversity of Amsterdam I have a PhD oninvesting risk and now I’m anindependent researcher doing research onbusinesses and sharing my thoughts onYouTube two years ago one and a halfyear ago I gave my thoughts I shared mythoughts on canopy growth and thecannabis sector because it was reallyrequired for me to do that and myconclusion wasn’t positive so I’m goingto give you an overview of what I didwhat was the consequence of it and howit developed now that cannabis stocksare crashing then we’ll also discuss theBitcoin as Ray Dalio discussed how thereis a currency imminent collapse isBitcoin the answer to it I’ll give you abullish thesis on Bitcoin and then youwill see how that fits your investingstrategy risk and reward and why I’m notgoing to invest in Bitcoin I might looklike a fool for the next 5-10 years butit’s simply not my strategy howeverthere is a very strong bullish casebehind it so let’s start so I investcanopy growth in aurora cannabis inApril of 2018 I was even contacted byinvestor relations because of myconclusions to have a chat with them butthen it’s diluted I didn’t manage tocatch them and they were going public onthe New York Stock Exchange and simplythe chat didn’t go through and I alsodidn’t have any interest in discussingit with them but I looked like a foolfor exactly a year and a half Idiscussed canopy growth at $40 per shareit went to 60 60 and something soeverybody that came on my channel so ohlook at this idiot he said canopy growis a tomato business when it was at 40and now it is at 60 and it lasted for ayear and a half and now the stock is at20 what did I say in my video well tosum up I said we have a commoditymarket with much lower prices managementthat’s trying to make money in any wayfor themselves not for shareholders nomoat same like tomatoes or broccoli hugedelusion in all forms a perfect exampleof misaligned interest with shareholdersthey were diluting the hell out of allother shareholders unreasonable growthprojections that might or might nothappen so I’d said that it’s like tomatoproducing and everybody attacked meeverybody said okay’s when you are crazythen I looked for like a fool for a yearand a half but what is the conclusionwhen you have an unsustainable businessmodel business model that selling dreamsand there is plenty of money then ofcourse the management made a lot ofmoney by selling those dreams dilutingshareholders getting share optionsselling stocks and that’s how thebusiness works somebody gets richunfortunately those that invest hopingthat they own a great business or hopingthat they will make quickly some moremoney based on greed or based a fear ofmissing out on the biggest new era ofthe biggest new business model on thebiggest new market that’s coming theyunfortunately lose their money very veryfastlyit’s simply greed and if a risk doesn’tmaterialize it doesn’t mean it isn’tthere if we look at the sp500 it’s alsovery risky the greed index is extremelygreedy everybody rushes into index fundsand just a year ago it was extreme fearbecause people were scared that thesp500 will crash because it was downwhat fifteen to twenty percent howevergoing back to fear and greed I think Ifind it very difficult to understand whypeople put their money or why peoplelike to bet on those Gamble’s becauseyes it is exciting but then again formerHuber’s CEO sold more than seven hundredmillion in stocks on his great idea andinvestmenthe made his 700 million that’s enoughfor a lifetime and he was protected youinvesting in uber or similar stocks youmight not have the same fate anotherstock that I got so many messages soSven please analyze it analyze itanalyze it and I didn’t analyze itbecause I didn’t want to bother with itbecause I knew what the story was wasbeyond meat it went publicexplosion upwards and then it’s justsimply slowly coming back to where itwas so the thing is that people areinvesting in things that sell dreams anddon’t have earnings and that’s calledthe greater fool investing theorybecause you need to find a greater foolto whom you’re going to sell that stockto make money not from earning similarstory was the dot-com bubble in the2000s that Nasdaq index went almost 5000pointsit took 1314 years to reach that levelagain and yes they were all right theinternet was Co has changed the worldbut few made money from 2000 five yearsago there was the frida system bubbleseverything was will be printed by 3dprinters right then we had we will usedrones cameras everybody will have adrone everything will be transported bydrones GoPro and cameras and blah blahblahwell another bubble that blew upnow investing in something thateverybody will be using is always a hotstory is always a hot story easy to sellthe next hot story that was a hot storytwo years ago it’s now hotter it wascool a year ago is Bitcoin so I’ve madea video on dahlias view on an imminentcurrency debasement over the next 10years and I got a lot of messages askingme okay whether the Bitcoin is theanswer as an asset class to protectyourself from what’s going to happen tocurrencies from what’s going to happento economies and well the economics thefundamentals of the Bitcoin are therevery interesting so let me first sharethe bullish thesis for Bitcoin and thenI’ll tell you why I will or will not putmy money into this so the supply ofBitcoin is currently 18 million the 160billion market cap at the current priceit will go up to 21 million over thenext year so slow slow inflation with ahard cap so this occurs in form ofsupply shocks in the mining block rewardand it is exponentially decreasingmanner as such so we can say that theBitcoin has a limited supply soinflation rate will be zero and it alsohas a cost of production like othermetals have and a week ago it was sevenhundred seven thousand four hundredninety per Bitcoin in electricity coststo mine a single Bitcoin so it’sdecentralized no government or thirdparty owns the network it’s alsofungible and divisible in eight decimalpoints censorship so in Argentina ittrades at a premium because people areputting their money into bitcoins toprotect themselves from what’s going onthere in Argentina it’s more and moredifficult to mine as we have said so itgets provable scarce it is somethinglimited something decentralized so it’sa very very good story but why am I notgoing to put my money in it because Ithink I can do better than the Bitcoinover the long term by investing inbusinesses that compound over the longterm that produce something however if Iput it in a ray dolly on all-weatherportfolio where you simply invest in allasset classes this could be part of ityou say okay I’m investing in Bitcoin 5%of my portfolio when it becomes 7 Ibring it down to 5 when it becomes freeI bring it up to 5% and in such a wayyou might get the yield you might tradeit you might do something but then againall weather is not about maximizingportfolio returns it’s just aboutstabilizing portfolio returns I amfocused on maximizing portfolio returnsbut by investing in things that haveunlimitedthe upside if Bitcoin stabilizes andgives you just protection againstinflation then you know the upside islimited so these are my thoughts you seehow what fits you I’m not saying thiscould cannot go to 60 it absolutely cango to 60 thousand I might look againlike a fool for not investing in Bitcoinfor the next two five ten years Iprobably will we’ll seedepending on the supply and demand andwhat people believe but I don’t like toinvest in what people believe I like toinvest in what people need and I’m notea will need it and that’s the riskreward I’m not going to accept so whatwill happen I have absolutely no ideawith Bitcoin and it could be thefundamentals are there depends on whatare people going to believe and wherethey are going to put their money not asufficient reason to invest for me thankyou for watching look forward to yourcomments look at what I do in thedescription of the video below you haveall the links for my stock marketresearch platform where we look forbusinesses that are going to deliverreturns forever and infinite returnshopefully thank you and I’ll see you inthe next video[Music]